Call out the instigators….
Because according to Mary Anne Sieghart in The Times, the Social Revolution is here.
"This week, we heard that sales of 4×4s had fallen in Britain for the first time. Sure, petrol has become a lot more expensive and politicians are threatening to whack punitive taxes on the Chelsea tractors. But also, what used to be thought of as enviable motors have now become embarrassing. As Ken Hurst, of The Manufacturer magazine, who monitors the figures, puts it: “Possibly children who once saw the vehicles as status symbols, now feel ashamed when they are dropped off at the school gates
You would have thought that driving down the Kings Road in a vehicle meant for negotiating rutted tracks would be embarrassing enough. But that’s not the issue. It’s the petrol they consume and the pollution they emit that have become socially unacceptable."
And just how "socially unacceptable" are they? According to figures from a Daily Mail article:-
"A total of 105,196 new off-roaders were sold in the first seven months of 2006 compared with 106,732 in January-July 2005.".
That’s a total drop of around 1.5% in sales. Hardly a revolution. However, if the total number of new cars had risen in the same period, then maybe we could see it in those terms, that sales of other cars were much better.
Unfortunately, that’s not the case. According to Ananova:-
Last month’s sales took the total registrations for the year to just under 1.4m - 4.2% down on the January-July 2005 figure.
So, the sales of 4×4s dropped by 1.4% at the same time that new cars sales in the same period dropped 4.2%. Wouldn’t that suggest that when people are choosing a new car, even more people are opting for 4×4s than they were in 2005?
RSS
Although your analysis is spot on it does seem the case that the boom in 4×4s could be over, as previously they had been growing in a falling market.
In 2003 UK non-SUV car sales fell by 0.3%, in 2003 1.3% and 2005 5.7%. SUVs meanwhile rose by 15.7%, 12.8% and 4.4%.
A decline of 1.4% so far this year compared with non-SUV’s decline of about 4.5% (or thereabouts) continues this trend, but the outperformance seems to be fading.
Matthew,
Thanks for the comment.
It could be that the saturation of consumers seeking SUVs has now been reached, and that we’ll see growth follow similar patterns to cars, particularly as it would take time to unwind as people change their cars.
We may even see a decline. We haven’t yet, though.
It’s certainly been the case in the US, but there of course a) the SUV market share was much higher, and b) the petrol price has risen much further.
Matthew,
The UK fuel price is mostly tax, the US less so. So a rise in price was higher as a percentage.
Also, the SUVs in the US are frequently much larger and thirstier than the ones here.